CHAPTER 2 Quantitative crisis analysis: identifying and defining imbalances

Authors

Olena Nieizviestna, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Natalia Ivanova, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Viktorija Koverza, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Volodymyr Kotkovskyi, National University "Odessa Law Academy"; Yevhenii Tryhubchenko, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15587/978-617-7319-37-4.ch2

Keywords:

Managerial decision, Managerial decision, managerial decision making model, managerial decision making model, managerial decision making mechanism, managerial decision making mechanism, crisis, crisis, macroeconomic imbalances, macroeconomic imbalances, problem, problem, econometric approach, econometric approach, data-driven decision-making, data-driven decision-making, Highest Paid Person's Opinion, Highest Paid Person's Opinion, data-driven decision making capability, data-driven decision making capability, nformation and analytical support of managerial decisions, nformation and analytical support of managerial decisions, regression model, regression model, econometrics, econometrics, canonical analysis, canonical analysis, taxonomic analysis, taxonomic analysis, cluster analysis, cluster analysis, principal component method, principal component method, tree of opportunities, tree of opportunities, migration policy, migration policy, economic security, economic security, innovative development, innovative development, living standards of the population, living standards of the population, innovation infrastructure, innovation infrastructure, development management, development management, local development strategies, local development strategies, regional tourism markets services, regional tourism markets services, tourism, tourism, hotel and restaurant industry, hotel and restaurant industry, personnel innovation potential, personnel innovation potential, strategic management, strategic management, cognitive model, cognitive model, strategic process concept, strategic process concept, strategic decision, strategic decision, strategic change, strategic change, SWOT analysis, SWOT analysis, Potential square, Potential square, competitiveness, competitiveness, efficiency, efficiency

Abstract

Dedicated to the study of the possibility of using quantitative analysis tools to determine macroeconomic imbalances as potential harbingers of the spread of the crisis. It is noted that in modern conditions of a rapid course of crisis situations, it is advisable to use nonlinear models, an example of which is nonparametric models based on the signaling approach, providing for the use of macroindicators (indicators) characterizing the economy's resistance to crises. To predict the emergence of negative trends in the development of the economy in the future, the authors developed and proposed for use a regression model with performance indicators, which reflects the dependence of the probability of the onset of the period of "crisis" on a number of economic indicators and carried out its approbation for the Ukrainian economy. Forecasting results for 2021–2022 They made it possible to determine the deviations of the Ukrainian economy from the trajectory of sustainable development. The authors indicated the corrective measures of economic policy on the part of the macroeconomic regulation authorities in order to suspend the inertial development of the forecast situation.


ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF MANAGERIAL DECISIONS AT THE MACRO AND MICRO LEVELS

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November 5, 2021

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Copyright (c) 2021 Oksana Chernega, Uyrii Yakovenko, Anastasia Chepurnova, Oleksandra Makieieva, Olena Nieizviestna, Natalia Ivanova, Viktorija Koverza, Volodymyr Kotkovskyi, Yevhenii Tryhubchenko, Tetiana Kozhukhova, Yuliia Bocharova, Lyubov Shevchenko, Valentina Barabanova, Valery Yankovsky, Yuliia Lyzhnyk, Yuliia Vorobiova, Viktoriia Koshel, Ganna Gorina, Galina Bohatyryova, Olha Nikolaichuk, Svitlana Revutska, Nataliia Pryimak, Radion Nykyforov, Oleksandr Romanykha, Kateryna Khavrova, Nataly Lokhman, Maria Kolchuk, Alexander Kravtsov, Eugene Klevtsov

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ISBN-13 (15)

978-617-7319-37-4

Details about the available publication format: Hardcover

Hardcover

ISBN-13 (15)

978-617-7319-38-1

How to Cite

CHAPTER 2 Quantitative crisis analysis: identifying and defining imbalances. (2021). In O. Chernega, U. Yakovenko, A. Chepurnova, O. Makieieva, O. Nieizviestna, N. Ivanova, V. Koverza, V. Kotkovskyi, Y. Tryhubchenko, T. Kozhukhova, Y. Bocharova, L. Shevchenko, V. Barabanova, V. Yankovsky, Y. Lyzhnyk, Y. Vorobiova, V. Koshel, G. Gorina, G. Bohatyryova, O. Nikolaichuk, S. Revutska, N. Pryimak, R. Nykyforov, O. Romanykha, K. Khavrova, N. Lokhman, M. Kolchuk, A. Kravtsov, & E. Klevtsov, ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF MANAGERIAL DECISIONS AT THE MACRO AND MICRO LEVELS. Kharkiv: TECHNOLOGY CENTER PC. https://doi.org/10.15587/978-617-7319-37-4.ch2